Economy turns from slow to steady in October and November, Q3 and Q4 GDP of FY 2021 seen in positive growth trajectory: PHD Chamber
High forex reserves, strong stock market, improvement in employment scenario indicate that recovery to become stronger in the coming months, says the industry body PHDCCI
Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry has expressed confidence in the ongoing economic recovery which has turned to steady growth trajectory from the severe slowdown faced in Q1 FY 2020-21 caused by pandemic covid-19, in a press statement issued here today.
Out of the 10 indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends) of economic and business activity tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 6 have performed positive of which foreign exchange reserves have shown a highest sequential growth of 11% in November 2020.
The economic reforms undertaken by the Government have instilled the expectations of a positive growth in Q3 FY2021 with robust resumption of the lost economic and business activity, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.
0 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply side indicators along with external sector and financial indicators, said Sh. Aggarwal
Economic and business indicators such as stock market, employment, railway freight, exchange rate, FOREX reserves and Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) have shown positive sequential growth in November 2020 as compared with October 2020, he said
Level of employment in the country is improving as unemployment has improved from 7% in October 2020 to 6.5% in November 2020, said Sh. Aggarwal
However, indicators such as E way bill, passenger vehicle sales, manufacturing PMI and GST collection have shown sequential deceleration in November 2020 as compared to the previous month of October 2020.
We believe that improvement in 6 economic and business indicators on sequential basis is a good indication that economy is in steady growth trajectory and moving in right direction, said Sh. Sanjay Aggarwal.
We appreciate that the government has taken very effective and meaningful reforms to rejuvenate economy from the daunting impact of Covid-19, said Sh. Aggarwal
PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends for November 2020: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far
|S. No.||Economic and Business Indicators||September 2020||October 2020||Growth
|1||GST Collection (in Rs crore)||95480||105155||10.1%||↑||104963||(-)0.2%||↓|
|2||E way bill (in Millions)||57.4||64.1||11.7%||↑||55.3||(-)13.7%||↓|
|3||Unemployment Rate (in %) (Sign Changed)*||6.67||6.98||(-)4.6%||↓||6.51||6.7%||↑|
|4||Railway Freight (MT)||102||108||5.8%||↑||110||1.6%||↑|
|5||Passenger Vehicle Sales (units)||272027||310294||14.1%||↑||286353||(-)7.7%||↓|
|6||Forex Reserves (in US$ Billion)||499.9||518.3||3.7%||↑||575.2||11.0%||↑|
|7||Exchange Rate (INR/USD) (Sign changed)*||73.56||74.55||(-)1.3%||↓||73.99||0.8%||↑|
|8||Stock Market (SENSEX monthly average)||38379||40115||4.5%||↑||43011||7.2%||↑|
|9||Manufacturing PMI (points)||56.8||58.9||3.7%||↑||56.3||(-)4.4%||↓|
|10||Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI)||80.3||82.4||2.6%||↑||87.03||5.6%||↑|
|Overall growth performance of indicators of QET||8↑/10||6↑/10|
Source : PHD Research Bureau, PHDCCI, compiled from various sources